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The same three boxes are used again, with the same… | StemPy Lab
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The same three boxes are used again, with the same throws of a fair die choosing the box, as in the figure. A ball is drawn and it is red. What is the probability that it came from box 2?
Mathematics
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High School (11–12)
Statistics and Probability › Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem
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The same three boxes are used again, with the same throws of a fair die choosing the box, as in the figure. A ball is drawn and it is red. What is the probability that it came from box
2
2
2
?
Fig. 1: Three boxes side by side. Box 1 is chosen by a throw of 1 or 2 and holds 2 red and 3 green balls. Box 2 is chosen by a throw of 3, 4 or 5 and holds 4 red and 1 green ball. Box 3 is chosen by a throw of 6 and holds 1 red and 1 green ball.
4
5
\dfrac{4}{5}
5
4
1
2
\dfrac{1}{2}
2
1
24
37
\dfrac{24}{37}
37
24
24
60
\dfrac{24}{60}
60
24
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← A fair die decides which box a ball is drawn from. The figure shows the three boxes and the throws that choose them. A ball is drawn from the chosen box. What is the probability that the ball is red?
A test for a rare illness has sensitivity 0.94 and specificity 0.94. A student says, 'If I test positive, I am ill with probability 94%, because the test is 94% accurate.' Which reply is best? →
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