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A test for a rare illness has sensitivity 0.94 and… | StemPy Lab
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A test for a rare illness has sensitivity 0.94 and specificity 0.94. A student says, 'If I test positive, I am ill with probability 94%, because the test is 94% accurate.' Which reply is best?
Mathematics
Medium
High School (11–12)
Statistics and Probability › Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem
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A test for a rare illness has sensitivity
0.94
0.94
0.94
and specificity
0.94
0.94
0.94
. A student says, 'If I test positive, I am ill with probability
94
%
94\%
94%
, because the test is
94
%
94\%
94%
accurate.' Which reply is best?
The claim is wrong, because the chance of being ill after a positive test depends on how common the illness is.
The claim is right, because the sensitivity and the specificity are equal.
The claim is wrong, because the chance is always
50
%
50\%
50%
after a positive test.
The claim is right, because the test is
94
%
94\%
94%
accurate.
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