Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
A friend tosses a coin times and gets heads. If the coin is fair, the number of heads is . Find the mean and the standard deviation of that count. How many standard deviations above the mean is ? Then find the exact probability that a fair coin gives heads or more. Give four decimal places.
The usual range of a binomial count is . A proportion has mean and standard deviation .
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. Mean and spread. heads and heads.
Step 2. How far. standard deviations above the mean, outside the usual range.
Step 3. The exact tail. Adding for to gives about .
Answer: , , and about .
What it means. A fair coin gives or more heads only about once in runs of tosses. That is not proof, but it is a reason to doubt the coin. The last chapter of this book turns this idea into a test.
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