Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
Two made-up clinics report how many patients recovered within a week after a small operation. Clinic X: of patients under and of patients over . Clinic Y: of patients under and of patients over . Find the four group rates and the two overall rates. A friend over must choose a clinic. Which would you suggest, and why?
Simpson's paradox: a comparison holds inside every group but reverses when the groups are combined. An overall rate is a weighted average of the group rates: add the passes of all the groups, then divide by the total number in all the groups.
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. Groups. X: under and over . Y: under and over .
Step 2. Overall. X: . Y: .
Answer: , , and in the groups; and overall.
What it means. For a patient over , clinic X has the better record, against . Clinic Y looks better overall only because most of its patients are younger, and younger patients recover more often anywhere. Suggest clinic X, and say why.
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