Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
A made-up online survey of adults finds a correlation of between hours of sleep and a happiness score. A news site writes: "Sleep is the key to happiness: more sleep makes you happier." What percentage of the variation in happiness can a straight line on sleep account for? Give three reasons why the headline goes too far.
Growth by an equal factor each step is a straight line on a log scale: , with a factor of per unit of and a doubling time of . A square root straightens a quantity that grows like a square.
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. The share. , so .
Step 2. Reasons.
Answer: ; and the headline claims a cause from a weak correlation in an observational study.
Watch out. An online survey also chooses itself: only people who see it and want to answer are in it.
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