Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
Three fair coins are tossed. Let be the event that the first and second coins show the same face. Let be the same event for the second and third coins, and the same event for the first and third coins. A teacher claims that the three events are pairwise independent but not mutually independent. To test the claim, find , which is the probability that the first two events both happen. Then find , and find the product . Use the sample space of eight equally likely outcomes. State whether the claim is true. Each event has the same probability, and by symmetry the other two pairs behave like the first.
Events are independent when , which is the same as . Test the product, never assume it. For independent events, .
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. Each event. holds for HHH, HHT, TTH and TTT, so . By the same count .
Step 2. A pair. means the first two agree and the last two agree, so all three coins agree: HHH or TTT. So . This equals , so and are independent. The pairs and give the same.
Step 3. All three. is again HHH or TTT, so .
Step 4. The product. , which is not .
Answer: , and . The claim is true: the events are pairwise independent but not mutually independent.
Why it happens. If you know that and both happened, then is certain. Two of the events together tell you everything about the third.
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