Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
A farmer records the number of days since a seedling was planted and its height in centimetres, for six days: and . The points lie close to a straight line. On day a storm breaks the plant, and the height is recorded as centimetres. The farmer wonders how much one record can change the correlation. Find for the first six points, when the point is added, and when the point is added instead. Then say whether for all seven points describes the growth of a healthy plant.
Prediction inside the data is interpolation. Outside it is extrapolation. is the share of the variation in explained by the line. One odd point can change and the line a lot.
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. The six points. , and . So . The slope is .
Step 2. Add . For seven points, and . Then , and , so .
Step 3. Add . Now , , , so .
Answer: , and .
What it means. The line was a close fit for the first six days. The storm record is an outlier. It reflects an accident, not growth, so the seven-point does not describe a healthy plant. Report the storm separately.
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