Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
An urn holds red balls and white balls. A ball is drawn at random, and its colour is noted. The ball is then returned to the urn together with more balls of the same colour. This rule means that the colour just drawn becomes more likely next time. A second ball is then drawn at random. A student wants three numbers for a report on this model. Find the probability that both balls are red. Find the probability that the second ball is red. Then find the probability that the first ball was red, given that the second ball is red. Give the last answer as a decimal.
The multiplication rule is . In a tree diagram, multiply along each path and add the paths that make the event. Without replacement, the second-stage branches use the changed contents.
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. Both red. The first ball is red with probability . Then the urn holds red and white balls, so the second is red with probability . Both red: .
Step 2. The second ball is red. The other path is white then red. The first ball is white with probability . Then the urn holds red and white balls, so red has probability . That path gives . Adding the two paths: .
Step 3. First red, given second red. .
Answer: , and .
Check. The probability that the second ball is red is , the same as for the first ball. This is a known property of this urn. Knowing that the second ball is red raises the chance that the first was red from to .
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