Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
A laboratory tests water samples for a pollutant. Each sample contains the pollutant with probability , independently of the others. The laboratory wants to be at least sure of finding the pollutant in at least one sample. Find the smallest number of samples that gives this. Find the smallest number that makes the probability at least . Find the probability of at least one positive sample when the number is the one for . Give the last answer to four places.
, and . For large , , and the continuity correction uses for .
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. The condition. . For we need .
Step 2. Solve. . Round up: .
Step 3. For . . Round up: .
Step 4. The probability for samples. . With samples it would be , which is below .
Answer: samples, samples and .
Watch out. Rounding to would fall short of the target, so always round up.
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