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Estimate the chance of rain from the first 15 days only.
Contributed by StemPy LabTry it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
- Estimate the chance of rain from the first days only.
- Estimate it from the last days only.
- Which estimate should you trust most: (a), (b) or the whole month?
Need a reminder? The key ideaShow
The month, in degrees Celsius: , , , , , . It rained on days , to and to . Relative frequency = successes divided by tries. It estimates the probability, and a long run settles close to the true value.
The worked solution
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. First half. rainy days of : .
Step 2. Second half. rainy days of : .
Step 3. Which to trust. The whole month, , from twice as many days. Two halves of the same month gave very different answers, which shows how a short run jumps about.
Answer: and ; trust the whole month most.
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