Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
Anil and Bela play a game with one fair die. They throw in turns, Anil first, and the first person to throw a six wins at once. The game can go on for any number of throws. Find the probability that Anil wins. Find the probability that Bela wins. Then find the probability that the game ends within the first three throws. For the first two answers, think of the game as a sum over the throw on which someone first gets a six, and use the sum of a geometric series. Give decimals to four places. Check that the first two probabilities add up to , which means that the game ends with probability .
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. Anil. Anil wins on throw with probability . He wins on throw if the first two throws are not sixes and the third is: . In general he wins on throw with probability .
Step 2. The sum. The terms form a geometric series with first term and common ratio . The sum is .
Step 3. Bela. Bela's terms are Anil's terms multiplied by , so . The two add up to .
Step 4. Within three throws. The game is still going after three throws only if the first three throws are not sixes: . So the game ends within three throws with probability .
Answer: about , and .
Another way. Let be the probability that the player who throws first wins. That player wins at once with probability . Otherwise the roles swap, and the first player wins only if the other fails: , so .
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Events are independent when , which is the same as . Test the product, never assume it. For independent events, .