Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
A workshop has three machines. Machine makes of the parts, machine makes and machine makes . The shares of faulty parts are for , for and for . A part is picked at random and found to be faulty. Find the probability that it was made by , by and by . Give decimals to four places.
Bayes' theorem: , where is the sum of all the paths that end in . The top is one path, and the bottom is all of them.
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. The paths. : . : . : .
Step 2. The total. .
Step 3. The posteriors. . . .
Answer: , and .
Check. The three numbers add up to . Machine made the most parts but is the least likely source, because its parts are rarely faulty.
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