Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
A fair coin is tossed times. All sequences of heads and tails are equally likely. Count the sequences that contain at least heads in a row somewhere. Then find the probability of such a run. Finally, find the expected number of blocks of or more heads, using the rule with , and . Explain why the last two answers are equal.
For independent tries the past does not change the next result. Every sequence of fair tosses has probability . Long streaks are normal in long sequences.
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. Count. A block starting at toss : HHH and any tosses after it, sequences. A first block starting at toss : T at toss , then HHH, then any tosses, sequences. A first block starting at toss : toss is T, toss is free, then HHH, then any last toss, sequences. A first block starting at toss : toss is T, tosses and are free, then HHH, sequences. The total is .
Step 2. The probability. .
Step 3. The expected number. .
Answer: sequences, and .
Why they are equal. Two separate blocks of heads need at least tosses: HHH, a T, and HHH. So in tosses a sequence has either no block or exactly one. The average number of blocks is then the share of sequences with a block.
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