Try it on paper first. A hint, the key idea and the worked solution are here when you need them.
A bag holds two coins. One is fair. The other has a head on both sides. A coin is taken from the bag at random and tossed twice. Find the probability that it shows two heads. Given that it shows two heads, find the probability that it is the two-headed coin. Then suppose only the first toss is seen, and it is a head. Find the probability that the coin is the two-headed one. Give the last answer to four places.
Have you tried it?
Work it out on paper first. It is fine to get stuck or make a mistake: that is how we learn. When you are ready, go through the solution one step at a time, and check each step against your own.
Step 1. Two heads. Two-headed coin: . Fair coin: . The sum is .
Step 2. Which coin, after two heads. .
Step 3. Which coin, after one head. The paths to a head on the first toss are and . So the posterior is .
Answer: , and about .
What if? Each further head makes the two-headed coin more likely: after one head and after two.
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Bayes' theorem: , where is the sum of all the paths that end in . The top is one path, and the bottom is all of them.